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Lai's anxiety shows 'Taiwan independence' has no future

By Yao Yuxin | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2026-05-20 18:33
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The Taipei 101 skyscraper commands the urban landscape in Taipei, Taiwan. [Photo/Xinhua]

Lai Ching-te's May 20 speech came at an awkward moment. Only days earlier, United States President Donald Trump had said about Taiwan that he did not want to see "somebody go independent", showed little appetite for fighting a war 9,500 miles away, and treated a pending arms package for Taiwan as part of wider bargaining with China.

Those words landed heavily on the Democratic Progressive Party authorities because they touched the most fragile part of Lai's political calculation. For years, the pro-independence ruling party has tried to convince the island's separatist forces that confrontation with the Chinese mainland can be offset by support from Washington. Trump's remarks reminded them of a colder reality. The US may use Taiwan when it serves its interests, but it will not offer unlimited backing for a reckless separatist agenda.

That is why Lai's speech sounded carefully balanced. He spoke of peace, stability and maintaining the status quo. He claimed that Taiwan's future should not be decided by external forces. He also tried to present his administration as a "guardian of peace" in the Taiwan Strait.

Yet beneath the softer language, the political substance remained unchanged. Lai described Taiwan as a sovereign and independent country and framed cross-Strait relations as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, while avoiding the basic fact that the Taiwan island is an inseparable part of China. His so-called status quo means preserving separation. His so-called peace depends on arms purchases and external interference. His so-called democracy serves as a shield for separatism.

This is the contradiction at the heart of Lai's strategy. He warns against Taiwan's future being shaped by outside powers, while tying the island's security ever more tightly to weapon supplies and political support from the US. He once said they aimed to be players rather than pawns on the geopolitical chessboard, yet his own actions are pushing Taiwan further into the role of a pawn.

The May 20 speech therefore revealed more than policy. It revealed anxiety. Lai had to reassure Washington that he would not trigger an immediate crisis. But he also had to reassure his supporters on the island that he had not retreated. He had to continue selling the illusion that "Taiwan independence" can be repackaged as peace and protected by foreign support.

That illusion has no future. The Taiwan question concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. No amount of rhetorical adjustment can change the nature of separatism. If Lai truly wants peace, he should stop turning Taiwan into a tool of confrontation and a pawn in geopolitical games.

The author is a writer with China Daily.

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