Thailand's economy expanded by 2.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, supported by stronger exports, consumption and investment, according to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).

Total investment, merchandise exports and government consumption accelerated during the quarter, while private consumption continued to grow steadily. Exports of services also returned to positive growth, the NESDC said in its latest report.

In the first three months of this year, Thailand's export value reached $95 billion, marking a 17.8 percent increase from a year earlier and accelerating from 9.4 percent growth in the previous quarter. The expansion was driven mainly by strong manufacturing exports, particularly electronics and electrical appliances.

On the production side, the agriculture, forestry and fishing, manufacturing, accommodation and food service, transportation, and storage sectors all recorded faster growth. However, wholesale and retail trade, as well as the construction sector, slowed compared with the previous quarter.

Despite the growth in the first three months, NESDC has remained the country's full-year economic growth forecast within the range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent as the war in the Middle East drags on.

Due to the regional conflict, exports and consumer spending are expected to weaken in the second quarter, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said at a recent press conference. He warned that further challenges could emerge, including rising oil prices and mounting inflationary pressure.

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said higher energy prices and rising transportation costs linked to the Middle East conflict are expected to weigh on Thailand's food exports. The group projects food exports this year will total 1.4 trillion baht ($43.29 billion), down 7.3 percent from 2025.

According to the FTI, tensions in the Middle East have disrupted shipping routes and logistics systems, while a slowing global economy and weaker purchasing power have added further pressure on exports.

Despite the growing uncertainty, some analysts believe the crisis may also create long-term opportunities for Thailand's food industry. Rising global demand for food reserves during periods of international instability could boost exports of canned food, instant food, beverages, and other products with long shelf lives.

Attakrit Patchimnan, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science at Thammasat University, said stronger global demand for rice, poultry, processed food, frozen food, and canned goods could support Thailand's export sector. He added that inflationary pressure worldwide may encourage consumers to shift from premium products to lower-cost staples, potentially improving Thailand's competitiveness in international food markets.

Attakrit also highlighted broader opportunities arising from geopolitical tensions. As global supply chains diversify, Thailand could strengthen its position as a manufacturing and logistics hub in Southeast Asia, he said.

"Increasingly, multinational corporations are seeking to reduce dependence on unstable regions and concentrated production networks," Attakrit said.

"Industries in Thailand, including automotive components, electronics, food processing, logistics, and medical services, could attract additional foreign investment as companies look for alternative production bases."

He added that the crisis may also accelerate investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and alternative fuels. Over the longer term, reducing reliance on fossil fuels could improve Thailand's economic resilience, support the development of new industries and jobs, and enhance the country's competitiveness as the global economy transitions toward cleaner energy.

"Thailand may continue to benefit if international tourists view the country as relatively safe and politically stable compared with conflict-affected regions," Attakrit said.

"Medical tourism, retirement tourism, and long-stay tourism could remain resilient even during periods of broader global instability."