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After two years in office, growing evidence suggests Lai Ching-te has been consolidating his political power and advancing the "Taiwan independence" separatist agenda at the expense of the Taiwan people's livelihoods and regional stability.

While Lai promised to "make Taiwan a better place" two years ago, critics have pointed out a sharp contrast between the sweeping promises made in his inaugural address and his actual governance.

Of Lai's 227 campaign pledges, only two have been fulfilled, representing a 99 percent failure rate, according to Ko Ju-chun, a lawmaker from the Chinese Kuomintang, the largest opposition party in Taiwan. This lack of progress has led critics on the island to label Lai a "liar". Recent polling in Taiwan indicated that his dissatisfaction rating has remained above 50 percent for five consecutive months.

Despite failure to fulfill his pledges, the Lai administration has introduced measures such as the "mass recall" campaign targeting opposition lawmakers and restrictions preventing Taiwan residents from taking group tours to the Chinese mainland. Political analysts argued that what Lai has brought to the island is deepening internal political confrontation and straining cross-Strait relations.

Escalating tensions

Since taking office in May 2024, Lai has pursued a political agenda centered on "Taiwan independence". His administration has moved away from the 1992 Consensus, which embodies the one-China principle and has long served as the foundation for cross-Strait relations.

The Chinese mainland has dismissed this separatist agenda as a mere "illusion". His approach has also faced pushback from opposition parties within Taiwan and has failed to gain recognition from the broader international community.

The Lai administration has taken provocative actions such as military expansion and reliance on external forces to advance its separatist agenda, moves widely seen as fueling political confrontation in Taiwan and across the Strait.

In March last year, it released the so-called 17 measures, which labeled the mainland as a "hostile force" and imposed restrictions on cross-Strait exchanges.

While repeatedly emphasizing the "importance of peace", Lai has continued to push for an increase in the island's "defense" spending to more than 3 percent of GDP, with a target of reaching 5 percent by 2030.

In November last year, he also proposed a special "defense" budget worth $40 billion for arms purchases from the United States. After being blocked several times by opposition lawmakers, the proposal was eventually reduced to $25 billion in May.

Zheng Jian, a professor of Taiwan studies at Xiamen University in Fujian province, said the Lai administration's strategic shortsightedness and blind obedience with the belief that paying "protection fees" can buy security will not bring peace, but instead risk turning Taiwan into a powder keg of geopolitical rivalry.

He added that Lai's so-called defense is mortgaging Taiwan's future and tying its 23 million people to his "Taiwan independence" chariot.

Li Zhenguang, dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Beijing Union University, said that "Taiwan independence" provocations have created heightened risks of military conflict in the region, which are the greatest threat to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Societal divisions

On May 19, an impeachment vote against Lai was held in the island's "legislative yuan" on the eve of the second anniversary of his term, marking the first such vote targeting a Taiwan leader.

The impeachment procedures were initiated by the two opposition parties in December last year after the Lai administration refused to promulgate an amendment to the government revenue allocation plan enacted by the legislative body.

The move of the Lai administration was regarded as negating legislative power and undermining the separation of powers in the government.

Although the impeachment motion failed to reach the required threshold, the 56-50 vote in favor of the proposal still reflected strong public dissatisfaction with Lai's administration, opposition parties said.

Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of the KMT, said on May 20 that the Lai administration's disregard for Taiwan's laws and democratic institutions has become the most significant source of instability on the island over the past two years.

When Lai was elected as the regional leader in 2024, his Democratic Progressive Party failed to secure an absolute majority in the legislative assembly. Out of the 113 representatives in the "legislative yuan", 52 are from the KMT, 51 from the DPP, eight from the Taiwan People's Party and two are non-party candidates.

Facing this unfavorable balance of power, the Lai administration has attempted to overturn election results while intensifying efforts to suppress opposition parties and dissenting voices in Taiwan.

An unprecedented "mass recall" campaign was launched by the DPP authorities in July and August last year, targeting 31 KMT lawmakers and a former mayor of Hsinchu from the TPP in an attempt to remove them from office before the end of their terms. However, none of the recall efforts succeeded.

Under Lai's administration, partisan tensions between the DPP and opposition parties have also led to frequent stalemates over policy proposals and public budget bills in the legislative body, contributing to low government efficiency.

The mainland has described his administration as "incapable of governing but highly adept at political infighting".

Following the "anti-mainland" stance, the Lai administration has also required public officials and employees in education to sign a declaration stating that they do not hold mainland household registration or identification.

These people also need to obtain approval before traveling to the mainland and to provide detailed reports of their itineraries and purposes upon returning to Taiwan. Violations may result in demerits and dismissal from their posts.

Many residents in Taiwan have expressed deep concern over a tightening political and social atmosphere, describing a "chilling effect" akin to a new "green terror", a reference to the signature color of the DPP.

Among those most severely affected are mainland-born spouses living in Taiwan, a community of over 400,000 people. Last year, the DPP authorities expelled several mainland-born spouses, who are social media influencers, after DPP supporters reported them for making pro-mainland comments online. One of these influencers, Liu Zhenya, was forced to leave Taiwan, separating her from her three children on the island.

The DPP authorities also issued an administrative order requiring mainland-born spouses to submit a document certifying the renunciation of their mainland household registration. Those who do not comply face the risk of having their Taiwan residency or settlement permits revoked.

Zheng, the professor, called the governing approach "dictatorial", under which "those who obey will prosper, while those who oppose will perish".

He said that such practices of intimidating dissenters fully expose the hypocrisy of "wanting not democracy but the DPP to dominate".

Deceptive 'resilience'

Taiwan's economic growth rate reached 8.68 percent last year, the highest level in the past 15 years, while per capita nominal GDP surpassed $39,000, which was highlighted by Lai in his anniversary speech on May 20.

However, recent data released by Taiwan's accounting authorities showed that nearly 70 percent of employed workers on the island earned less than the average salary in the first quarter of this year, marking a record high.

The strong economic figures contrast sharply with the growing public perception of "poverty" on the island. Kuo Cheng-liang, a former lawmaker and political commentator, said the gains from economic growth have largely been concentrated among corporations rather than shared with ordinary workers.

Meanwhile, inflation still weighs on households and businesses. Amid the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, businesses are facing the combined pressure of rising oil prices and currency depreciation. According to market researcher CRIF Taiwan, the real purchasing power of the New Taiwan dollar has declined by about 3 to 5 percent since the outbreak of the conflict, further intensifying imported inflationary pressures.

The impact has also been reflected in consumer prices. Products such as imported beef, dairy products and fruits have seen price increases of around 8 to 12 percent in supermarkets due to higher air and sea freight surcharges.

Disruptions to energy shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz have also created challenges for Taiwan's heavily import-dependent energy supply. Power suppliers and oil refiners on the island have suffered significant losses while attempting to stabilize energy prices.

Compared to the administration's strong focus on political agendas, critics said it has shown indifference to the island's economic and industrial challenges.

In April, the mainland introduced 10 policy measures to promote cross-Strait industrial and infrastructure cooperation. While industry groups in Taiwan have called on the DPP authorities to respond, the administration labeled the package as "united front tools" and declined to implement the measures.

At the same time, the Lai administration has been accommodating demands raised by the US in a proposed trade framework, including expanding Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company operations in the US, increasing investment in US technology industries, and expanding imports of US agricultural products.

Local media reported that tariff-free access for US agricultural goods could pose risks to Taiwan's farmers, while eased import requirements for products such as sprouted potatoes have also raised concerns over food safety.

Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a news conference in February that the DPP made excessive concessions in trade negotiations with the US in an attempt to seek external support for their separatist agenda, at the cost of Taiwan's industrial development prospects and the interests of people on the island.

Professor Zheng said the so-called economic achievements are nothing but a mirage built on a single industry. "Once the external environment changes, Taiwan's economy could face a painful hard landing," he added.