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Strong El Nino may hit eastern Pacific by autumn

By ZHAO YIMENG | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2026-05-29 16:55
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Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific entered El Nino conditions in May, and the climate pattern may develop into a strong El Nino by late this year, the China Meteorological Administration stated on Friday.

With at least a moderate climatic event expected in the region by summer, the El Nino event is expected to peak during autumn and winter before weakening in spring next year, according to Gao Rong, deputy head of the National Climate Center.

The developing El Nino has already triggered atmospheric responses that are likely to strengthen the western Pacific subtropical high, helping transport more moisture into China's inland regions.

Historical data shows that under El Nino conditions, areas south of the Yangtze River tend to experience above-average rainfall during summer and autumn, while most parts of the country see higher-than-normal temperatures, the administration stated.

China recorded its wettest May in a decade this year, with average nationwide precipitation reaching 70.9 millimeters, 16.3 percent above the seasonal norm, Gao said.

Average national temperatures in May stood at 16.9 C, 0.6 degrees above the average norm, he added.

Heavy rainfall events in May were marked by strong intensity, long duration and wide geographic impact. China experienced seven regional severe convective weather events during the month, with provinces including Henan, Guizhou, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region reporting thunderstorm winds. Localized downpours and extreme rainfall were also reported in several regions.

Precipitation across eastern China is expected to remain slightly below normal over the next 10 days from Friday to June 7, Gao said, noting that rainfall nationwide is forecast to stay relatively weak before Tuesday, after which southern China is expected to see another round of widespread heavy rain.

Meanwhile, Typhoon Jangmi, the sixth typhoon of the year, is moving from waters east of the Philippines toward China's coastal seas and is continuing to strengthen.

The storm is expected to bring wind and rain to eastern Chinese waters between Sunday and Tuesday, but is not forecast to make landfall.

"It is expected to later turn northeastward and move away from China's sea areas," Gao said.

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