An opinion poll conducted for German weekly newspaper Bild am Sonntag shows the vast majority of people questioned think it is a formality that the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, will secure power in at least one of the three state elections taking place in the fall.

Since reunification in 1990, Germany has been consisting of 16 federal states, and three of those have elections later this year.

The AfD was launched in early 2013, initially as a party that opposed economic bailouts in the eurozone area, but has grown rapidly and taken an increasingly hard line on other issues, most notably immigration, and also state handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the February 2025 elections to the country's 630-seat federal Parliament, the AfD ended up with 20.8 percent of the vote and 150 seats, making it the second-largest party.

However, the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union opted to form a coalition with the center-left Social Democrats, rather than break the unspoken policy of noncooperation with the AfD.

In September, voters in the states of Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin go to the polls, and it is widely expected that the AfD will make significant gains, and take power in at least one state.

Of those questioned, 69 percent said they expected it to win in at least one of the three states, and 28 percent expected it in more than one, with only 16 percent saying they did not expect the AfD to win any of the three states.

For many years, the AfD presented itself as being politically in step with United States President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again movement, but it has distanced itself from this during the ongoing war in Iran.

Targeting sentiment

The Financial Times reported that the party has targeted anti-US sentiment in eastern Germany to bolster its local election chances.

"In eastern Germany, there are many voter groups who tend to favor a more skeptical stance toward America," Uwe Jun, a professor of political science at Trier University in Trier, Germany, told the FT.

"That criticism of US politics goes down very well with these voter groups," he said.

Rising fuel prices linked to the war, and their contribution to the cost-of-living crisis, have further encouraged a growth in AfD support among what might not be its natural demographic.

"Certain barriers are breaking down", said Ursula Munch, a political scientist and director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, Bavaria, including in "middle-class circles, where support for the AfD used to be frowned upon".

julian@mail.chinadailyuk.com