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Upturn seen in China and Japan but caution remains

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-06-19 09:21

BEIJING/TOKYO: Massive stimulus spending will keep China growing at a respectable clip but a rapid rebound is unlikely, the World Bank said, while a Reuters survey showed confidence among Japanese manufacturers improved sharply in June.

Policymakers in the world's second- and third-largest economies have been cautiously optimistic on a recovery in recent days, after a collapse in global trade in 2008 slowed China's growth and pitched Japan into a deep recession.

Upturn seen in China and Japan but caution remains

An employee promotes mobile phones at an electronics shop in Tokyo June 17, 2009. The World Bank raised its China forecast for economic growth this year to 7.2% on Thursday, up from its March prediction of 6.5%, while comfidence among Japan's manufacturers improved sharply in June. [Agencies]

In Britain, hard-hit by the downturn due to its long housing and credit booms and reliance on the financial industry, a business group predicted the economy would contract by 3.8 percent this year and see only a muted recovery in 2010.

A further read-out on the health of the British economy will come from May retail sales data, due at 0830 GMT, while in the United States weekly jobless claims figures, leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed business activity survey will be published.

A belief that the worst is past in the deepest global recession in six decades has driven world stocks up around 40 percent from a March low. Now investors have begun to seek further evidence of a real upturn.

Japanese shares fell 1.4 percent and MSCI's broadest measure of shares elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region eased 1 percent.

"The market is feeling cautious after the strong gains of the last three months, and uncertain as to how strong the recovery will be and when it'll come through," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Australia.

European index futures and London financial bookmakers pointed to major markets in Europe opening firmer after a four-session losing streak.

China Growth

In its quarterly update on the world's biggest emerging economy on Thursday, the World Bank raised its China forecast for economic growth this year to 7.2 percent, still below Beijing's official target of 8 percent but up from the 6.5 percent the bank projected in March.

The bank welcomed an unfolding surge in government-influenced investment, triggered by Beijing's 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus. And it said more domestic demand was helpful for the world economy.

"However, it is unlikely to lead to a rapid, broad-based recovery in China, given the current global environment and the subdued short-term prospects for market-based investment," it said.

"China's economic growth is unlikely to rebound to a high single-digit pace before the world economy recovers to solid growth."

On the capital account, the bank is now pencilling in whopping outflows of $170 billion this year, up from just $7 billion in 2008. As a result, the pace at which China adds foreign exchange reserves will slow dramatically.

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