DPRK needs a stick and lots of carrots

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) nuclear and missile tests may seem like blatant defiance of international law and a challenge to the international community. People may wonder why it is challenging its neighbors and big powers.

All this saber-rattling is actually aimed at ensuring its security. If the international community wants to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear arms program, it has to address its security concerns. The stick of threat has to be accompanied by the proverbial carrot of security guarantee.

The DPRK leadership is very vigilant to its own security. As a reclusive, isolated and poor country facing the only superpower US and a much richer neighbor, the Republic of Korea (ROK), the DPRK has little choice but to put all its resources into building its arsenal.

Though it has a standing army of 1 million, most of its weapons are outdated, and its navy and air force are relatively weak. The only way it thinks it can avoid a total war is by threatening others, for then no one will dare to risk a war. It's precisely for that reason it is desperate to develop nuclear weapons.

The Six-Party Talks achieved quite a few breakthroughs in recent times. But they could not offer the things Pyongyang wanted the most: security guarantee on the Korean Peninsula and diplomatic recognition from the US. Without the guarantee of absolute security from all the other parties in the talks, the DPRK is suspicious about the intentions of the US, the ROK and Japan. And to prepare for the worst-case scenario, it has decided to develop nuclear weapons.

Hence, it is clear that the world needs a stick and carrot policy - maybe more carrots than sticks - to resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue.

But the DPRK has to face some criticism and curbs to deter other countries from following its example. It may include sanctions on imports of weapons and fuel, and even stopping of aid on humanitarian grounds. The international community should hit out at the DPRK's leadership by imposing a total embargo on all luxury goods.

But these actions should be the means rather than the end of forcing the DPRK back to the negotiations table. The stakeholders should return to the Six-Party Talks as soon as possible.

The international community should provide Pyongyang the things it needs the most - a peace agreement formally ending the Korean War, a regional security pact, promising non-invasion and the diplomatic recognition from the US in exchange for a nuclear free Korean Peninsula.

And China has to play a decisive role in future talks. On one hand, China needs to pressure the DPRK to return to the negotiations table and persuade it to give up its nuclear program. On the other, it should persuade the US to offer security guarantee to the DPRK and finally establish diplomatic ties with it.

Alex Niu

via email

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(China Daily 06/02/2009 page9)