Investment banks trim GDP forecasts
Updated: 2008-11-18 07:39
By Kwong Man-ki(HK Edition)
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People take photos of a Christmas decoration in front of the Times Square. Many retailers are trying their best to lure more customers amid the city's economic slowdown. CNS |
Investment banks and brokers have revised down Hong Kong's economic growth forecasts after the SAR reported a very weak third-quarter performance, an economist said.
Hong Kong is officially in recession and further deterioration is likely, Credit Suisse's research analysts Tao Dong and Christiaan Tuntono said in a research note yesterday.
The SAR's third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth data, which was released last Friday, sharply slowed down to 1.7 percent year-on-year.
Credit Suisse has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2008 to 2.2 percent and expects a 2.2 percent contraction for 2009.
Its previous estimates were 3.2 percent growth in 2008 and 0.5 percent contraction in 2009.
The SAR government has also revised down its economic growth forecast for 2008 to 3 to 3.5 percent from 4 to 4.5 percent.
Credit Suisse believes that the official forecast is still optimistic as the fixed investment, employment market and private consumption sector will be deteriorating by mid-2009.
"A hard landing is a likely scenario for Hong Kong in 2009 because it is a major international financial center," Cazenove's economist Paul Schymyck said in a research note yesterday.
The broker expects the SAR's GDP to grow by 3 percent in 2008, but a 2 percent contraction in 2009.
The city could experience one of the deepest downturns in Asia in 2009, but it could experience a shallow recovery with a modest 3 percent growth in 2010.
Schymyck said that the manufacturing industry would pick up first when the global economy turns around, but Hong Kong has a relatively small manufacturing sector compared with others.
Credit Suisse is not optimistic about the situation in 2009 and expects the unemployment rate to rise from the current 3.4 percent to 5.5 to 6 percent by mid-2009 because of increased business closures and return of laid-off construction workers from neighboring regions.
"The decline in absolute income will be felt from domestic private consumption to property transactions," analysts Tao and Tuntono wrote, noting that the negative wealth effect and sharp fall in stock and property prices have hurt private consumption in the third quarter.
Credit Suisse also expects that the construction works and private spending on machinery, equipment and computer software will contract before mid-2009.
JPMorgan has also lowered the SAR's 2008 GDP growth forecast to 2.9 percent from 3.4 percent, and sees 1.3 percent contraction in 2009 compared with a 1 percent fall previously.
(HK Edition 11/18/2008 page2)