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News >World

Economists see slower US economic growth in 2011

2011-05-16 23:04

NEW YORK - US economic growth is expected to be slower than previously thought due to rising commodity prices, a tepid housing market and financial headwinds, according to a survey released by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday.

A panel of 41 economists cut its projections for 2011 US economic growth from 3.3 percent to 2.8 percent, but maintained its forecast for moderate economic growth through 2012.

The survey showed real gross domestic product (GDP) would grow at 3.2 percent in 2012, somewhat above most estimates of the economy' s long-run growth potential.

According to the NABE report, the downward revision reflected increasing concerns among economists about rising commodity prices, inflation, as well as federal deficits and debt.

The economists also lowered predictions for consumer spending growth this year to 2.8 percent from 3.2 percent, but they expected business spending to rise 11.9 percent.

Oil will average 105 dollars a barrel this year, the economists said, up from 93 dollars per barrel predicted in the last survey.

Economists believed that labor market conditions will continue to improve at a moderate pace, but joblessness will be still high, with the unemployment rate edging down to 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 and 8.0 percent in the final quarter of 2012.

The NABE forecast panel remained its confidence for a sustainable economic recovery, saying the likelihood of the economy slipping back into recession continues to be viewed as relatively low, while 10 percent of respondents thought that the recovery will be uneven and dependent on stimulus policies.

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