This does not mean that nothing will be done to establish mutual military and security trust and further improve political ties. The two sides remain able to steadily promote exchanges between academia and retired military officers on a voluntary basis so as to have some advance discussion and research in military and security confidence-building measures and prepare for future joint research between think tanks, and second-track and first-track dialogue.

They may also continue their respective relevant business exchanges with the United States. For the latter, academia and think tanks may also explore possible political positioning of the cross-Straits relationship in a situation where the country is yet to reunite. It is noteworthy that a recent problem with the potential of serious influence on cross-Straits political and security relations is whether the US will sell the F-16C/D to Taiwan or assist it to refit the F-16A/B.

In military and security confidence building, US arms sales to Taiwan and the mainland's reported missile deployment are of serious concern to both sides. They are related and involve a third party, the US. How to resolve these two problems deserves concerted effort. Since the beginning of this year, some people in the US strategic research community have put forward some new ideas on the handling of arms sales to Taiwan and breaking the US-China security dilemma. The US government should value their opinions as they are thinking about the long-term interests of the US.

It is to be hoped that the US will honor its commitment to support the two sides of the Taiwan Straits in pursuing peaceful development and conducting political, economic and security dialogues by doing things that benefit the stability and improvement of cross-Straits relations. The US' actions in the Taiwan Straits in the coming year will have significant bearing on future cross-Straits relations and Sino-US ties.

In the light of historical experiences, in order to maintain the stability of cross-Straits relations it is necessary to enhance crisis management and improve avoidance and control of contingencies while paying attention to opportunity management. The present situation has not been achieved easily. Any policy or act that may lead to a serious reversal must be firmly opposed.

Since last year, new frictions have appeared with the issue of Taiwan's "international space". In this regard, the mainland leadership has made it clear to the Taiwan side that the issue may be resolved through consultation between ARATS and SEF.

Looking to the future the establishment of a peaceful development framework represents a new way of thinking that will enable the mainland and Taiwan to move toward a path of gradual and voluntary reunification after a long breaking-in and converging period.

The author is a research fellow with the China International Strategy Research Fund.

(China Daily 06/03/2011 page8)